Solar cycle 25 . Very interesting? I have my doubts.

[ThaDood]

Ya know... After the let-down from the last Solar Cycle 24, and all the predictions for at least the last decade that say that Cycle 25 will just suck, I'll believe this prediction when Type O Negative does a cover of Madonna's, Like A Virgin. https://www.onallbands.com/%ef%bb%bfscientists-forecast-that-solar-cycle-25-could-actually-be-epic-for-ham-radio-operators/     (I would have to admit that the preceding Type O Negative feat would, at the very least, be amusing.)

[ChrisSmolinski]

Using (discrete) Hilbert transforms on 270 years of
(monthly) sunspot numbers to robustly identify the so-called “termination” events, landmarks marking the
start and end of sunspot and magnetic activity cycles, we extract a relationship between the temporal
spacing of terminators and the magnitude of sunspot cycles

I'll take Torturing The Data for $1,000 Alex.

[BoomboxDX]

Well, so far, Cycle 25 is sucking, if that's any indication.

PS, Type O is no more. Singer / bassist Peter Steele passed away about 10 or so years ago, RIP.

[ChrisSmolinski]

Well, so far, Cycle 25 is sucking, if that's any indication.

Meet the new solar cycle, same as the old solar cycle.

[EricPeterson]

I'll take Torturing The Data for $1,000 Alex.

Not only that, but they are  using your RF torture chamber.

[ChrisSmolinski]

This is the paper in question: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.15263.pdf

I was of course skeptical, and still am to some degree. However...

One of the predictors is how the termination event (sudden rise in solar activity) occurs. We apparently are right now seeing just such a predicted event, with the rapid increase in solar flux. While this does not by itself confirm the paper, it is consistent with it.

There is a good explanation here: https://www.amateurradio.com/solar-cycle-25s-fast-progress/

It still is bit premature and optimistic, but the author suggests Cycle 25 could outperform... hope you're all sitting down for this... Cycle 19.

[ThaDood]

Well, tell ya what, propagation at night this week has just sucked on the amateur bands. Even down on MW. I usually have to drive pretty close to my QTH to hear my Part #15 AM1620 at night, due to Cuba and Pensacola, FL duking it out on 1620kHz, but not this week. And the HAM's that I do hear on the regular chit-chat FREQ's, (1880Khz, 3810Khz, 3919Khz, 3995Khz, etc.), are bitching up a storm that they have trouble hearing each other. I have to use the preamps on 40M to hear the normal decent 6, 7, upper 0, and Western 5, lands. I just hope for a nice "E" season for 12M, 11M, 10M, and 6M.

[BoomboxDX]

Yeah, MW is sucking this season, and HF has a few mornings where you can hear about half of what could be heard 8 years ago, the rest of the mornings are mostly static.

And I don't think that's due to stations going off the air, as I haven't read of Chinese CNR1 jammers going off the air lately.

They are just not heard as well due to the propagation.

[NQC]

Hey All.

I figured I’d chime in.

IMHO , when most people think “Solar Cycle “ it seems that the emphasis is on HF.

To me HF in 2021 seems to require a better home station than what you could “ get away with “ 25 or 35 years ago.

There has been a reduction of stations, especially outside of the ham bands and overall, the past cycles have been just “OK “.

At least for me , with all roof top antennas long gone AND all the RF noise in the apt.I am pretty much toast re weak HF. FWIW , AM BCB ain’t such a big bargain either and also requires a decent signal to work .But at least it’s  easier to null noise.Plus if I give up BCB (or occasional stronger HF ) in the apt., I’ve pretty much given up on “in home”radio ,which I refuse to do.

The only way I can really hear anything weak ,on any frequency ,is to set up away from my apt.As I grow older and times have changed, I am somewhat less inclined to attract attention to myself by setting up remotely.Especially late at night .

All this being said, even IF a cycle is overall mediocre, it STILL can have some real “ up” times as well . You just really have to be on top of your game more.

There are modes that are not fully (or at all) cycle dependent ie trans equatorial, gray line, E ,sporadic E cloud, tropo for VHF and up,etc.One could research these as a way around the long haul F modes (F1, F1.5? F2, F3 ?)


But I still will drift out at times , especially  to work AM BCB which is a lot more "subtle" than a big HF antenna and might not be as much “ cycle affected” either .On vacation, at a location that I PAY for , HF would be  more in the mix.

K

[BoomboxDX]

^^^^^ You make some good points. As the years progress, even if the sunspots improve it will take more of an antenna setup than would work in 2011 to hear much SWBC, if only because most of the activity is on the other side of the globe from the US. 

Ham radio may or may not be much better, except during contests, when they tend to light up the bands with activity.

[UncleJohn]

At least for me , with all roof top antennas long gone AND all the RF noise in the apt.I am pretty much toast re weak HF. FWIW , AM BCB ain’t such a big bargain either and also requires a decent signal to work .But at least it’s  easier to null noise.Plus if I give up BCB (or occasional stronger HF ) in the apt., I’ve pretty much given up on “in home”radio ,which I refuse to do.

The only way I can really hear anything weak ,on any frequency ,is to set up away from my apt.As I grow older and times have changed, I am somewhat less inclined to attract attention to myself by setting up remotely.Especially late at night .

OK, this is THE honest to unowho truth: for the last 16 years I lived in a single story, single row appt. with aluminum sheet metal for the roof. Yes, lots & lots of "F'ing" noise. However, & this is the really hard bit to believe, I would alligator clip a wire (very short in length) from one of the antenna input jacks of my R8B to...get ready 'cause you're probably Not gonna believe me...the 8 foot baseboard heater annndddd I actually could catch pirates, often, even in the summer months!    Oh, I finally managed to move into a cheaper & smaller stand-alone cottage w/o aluminum anything! Meso happy looking forward to catching lots of stuff.  Oh, I realize there's still the god Propagation to give fealty to, if you get my drift.
Still "Bored Now". 

[BoomboxDX]

As far as I can tell, more than halfway through 2021, prop still is sucking poorly. MW isn't much better than SW.... There are still distant stations to hear, but it's nowhere what it was ten years ago.

Maybe next year will be better. Who knows.